Vincenzi’s RSM Traditional betting preview: Skilled heads prone to contend at Sea Island

The ultimate full-field occasion of the 2023 fall season has arrived. The PGA TOUR heads simply south of Augusta for the RSM Traditional at Sea Island Golf Membership (Seaside and Plantation programs) in St. Simons Island, Georgia.

Every golfer will play three rounds on the Seaside course and one spherical on the Plantation course.

The Seaside course is a par-70 structure measuring 7,005 yards, and the Plantation course is a par-72 setup coming in at 7,062 yards. The Seaside course, which was redesigned by Tom Fazio, performs extra like a coastal hyperlinks, whereas the Plantation course is much like a tree-lined parkland course. Each characteristic Bermudagrass greens and will probably be very scorable. The previous 5 winners of the occasion have all completed between -19 and -22.

Some notable gamers within the discipline embody Brian Harman, Ludvig Aberg, Si Woo Kim, Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Younger, Billy Horschel, Matt Kuchar, Russell Henley, Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Previous Winners at The RSM Traditional

• 2022: Adam Svensson (-19)
• 2021: Talor Gooch (-22)
• 2020: Robert Streb (-19)
• 2019: Tyler Duncan (-19)
• 2018: Charles Howell III (-19)
• 2017: Austin Cook dinner (-21)
• 2016: Mackenzie Hughes (-17)
• 2015: Kevin Kisner (-22)

Let’s check out a number of metrics for Sea Island Golf Membership to find out which golfers boast prime marks in every class over their final 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Strategy

The greens at Seaside are massive, so it will likely be necessary to stay strategy photographs near keep away from having to make tough two-putt par saves. In what must be a birdie-fest, golfers might want to stick their strategy photographs to contend.

Whole Strokes Gained: Strategy in previous 24 rounds:

1. Sam Ryder (+24.8)
2. Russell Knox (+22.4)
3. J.T. Poston (+20.3)
4. Eric Cole (+18.8)
5. Alex Smalley (+18.4)

Good Drives Gained

Size actually isn’t an element at both course. Trying on the previous winners at Sea Island, they’re all correct golfers off of the tee who know the way to discover the green. Nonetheless, over the previous few years, “Good Drives Gained” has been a way more predictive statistic at this occasion than “Fairways Gained.”

Whole Good Drives Gained in previous 24 rounds:

1. Russell Henley (+22.7)
2. Brendon Todd (+21.8)
3. Tyler Duncan (+21.7)
4. Martin Laird (+20.6)
5. J.J. Spaun (+20.5)

Strokes Gained Placing: Bermudagrass

This match may turn into a placing contest if the winds aren’t robust this week. Traditionally, the winners of the RSM Traditional are nice Bermudagrass putters (Simpson, Kisner and Hughes).

Whole Strokes Gained: Placing on Bermuda in previous 24 rounds:

1. Maverick McNealy (+27.7)
2. Chad Ramey (+25.3)
3. Martin Coach (+23.0)
4. Justin Suh (+22.7)
5. Taylor Montgomery (+22.5)

Birdie or Higher Gained

With birdies (and doubtlessly some eagles) prone to are available abundance, pars aren’t going to chop it at Sea Island. I anticipate the successful rating to be near -20, so focusing on golfers who go low is the appropriate technique right here.

Whole strokes gained in Birdie or Higher Gained in previous 24 rounds

1. Eric Cole (+31.4) 
2. J.T. Poston (+21.3)
3. Ludvig Aberg (+20.9)
4. Luke Record (+20.7)
5. Justin Suh (+16.1)

Strokes Gained: Par 4 (400-450)

With eight of the par 4s on the Seaside course measuring 400-450 yards, I’m seeking to goal golfers who excel on par 4s of this size.

Whole strokes gained in class in previous 24 rounds:

1. Russell Henley (+21.1)
2. Denny McCarthy (+13.4) 
3. Matthias Schmid (+12.8)
4. Callum Tarren (+12.6) 
5. Ryan Moore (+11.4)

Statistical Mannequin

Under, I’ve reported total mannequin rankings utilizing a mixture of the 5 key statistical classes beforehand mentioned.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%); Good Drives Gained (21); SG: Placing Bermudagrass (21%); B.O.B (21%); and SG: Par 4 400-450 (12%)

1. Russell Henley (+2200)
2. Sam Ryder (+9000)
3. Chesson Hadley (+6500)
4. Brendon Todd (+5000)
5. Eric Cole (+3500)
6. J.T. Poston (+3500)
7. Stephan Jaeger (+4000)
8. Matthias Schmid (+6000)
9. Brian Harman (+2000)
10. Austin Smotherman (+25000)

2023 RSM Traditional Picks

Matt Kuchar +4000 (DraftKings)

There are many gamers on the prime of the percentages board who’ve a powerful likelihood to contend this week, however few have had the current repetitions that Matt Kuchar has had. The veteran is in implausible kind and felt as if his recreation was in nice form heading into the World Vast Applied sciences Championship, the place he got here agonizingly near victory.

Kuchar has three top-19 finishes in his final 4 begins worldwide, together with the runner-up in his most up-to-date begin. At one level, he had a six-shot lead earlier than making a disastrous quadruple bogey on the fifteenth gap throughout his third spherical. Many anticipated Kuchar to battle on Sunday after blowing such a giant lead, however he carried out admirably and would have received if Erik Van Rooyen didn’t shoot a ridiculous -8 on the again 9.

The 45-year-old at the moment lives in St. Simons, Georgia so will probably be proper at house enjoying at Sea Island this week. His historical past on the course isn’t as spectacular as one would suppose given how properly the course matches him on paper, however he does have 4 top-30 finishes on the occasion since 2013.

In 5 of Kuchar’s six wins since 2012, he’s had a top-5 end in one in all his three earlier begins main as much as the win. I consider his begin on the WWT was a foreshadowing of a looming victory.

Billy Horschel +4000 (DraftKings)

After struggling for a lot of the 2022-2023 season, Billy Horschel has completed the highest 20 in 5 of his previous six worldwide begins together with a T14 end in his most up-to-date begin on the Alfred Dunhill Hyperlinks Championship in October.

Horschel hasn’t performed the RSM Traditional with regularity however completed in 2nd place on the occasion again in 2016 the place he misplaced to Mackenzie Hughes in a playoff. The course is an ideal match for Billy, who’s not overly lengthy off the tee and putts extremely properly on Bermudagrass.

Billy will come into the occasion as motivated as ever to contend on a course that he ought to have the ability to choose aside. With seven profession PGA Tour wins, there’s little doubt that Horschel is a more in-depth who will have the ability to maintain his composure down the stretch.

Harris English +6000 (DraftKings)

After a 2021 Ryder Cup look, Harris English has had an inconsistent two seasons on the PGA Tour. Nonetheless, the Sea Island resident completed the season on an encouraging word, ending tenth on the BMW Championship.

English has a combined historical past at Sea Island, however he does have a sixth place end in 2020. He completed twenty ninth final 12 months, however a closing spherical 65 could also be a sign that the 34-year-old figured one thing out on the course that he grew only a few hours away from.

It’s a bit regarding that English has been off since August, however he’s performed properly off of layoffs up to now. Final 12 months, he completed ninth on the Fortinet off a 6-week break. In 2021, he received the Sentry Match of Champions off of a 5-week break. This break has been a bit longer, however the additional time will not be a significant detriment.

Enlgish is a greater participant than he’s proven over the previous 18 months, and I consider he’s in retailer for a resurgent season which will begin this week in Sea Island.

Taylor Pendrith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Pendrith is in implausible kind. In his previous three begins, he’s completed third, fifteenth and eighth. Regardless of not seeming like an ideal course match at Sea Island on paper, he’s had some nice historical past on the course all through his profession.

Final 12 months, Pendrith completed fifteenth on the occasion, gaining 5.4 strokes on strategy. He additionally got here into the occasion whereas enjoying some beneath common golf and nonetheless managed to hit it nice at Sea Island. In 2021, he completed twenty sixth regardless of lacking the reduce in two earlier begins in addition to the next begin. I consider now that the Canadian is coming into the occasion enjoying some extremely constant golf he must be a critical menace to contend deep into the weekend.

Ben Griffin +7500 (DraftKings)

Only a week in the past, Ben Griffin was 22-1 and one of many betting favorites on the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Though some prime finish gamers corresponding to Ludvig Aberg, Brian Harman and Cameron Younger have been added to this discipline, I nonetheless consider the drop all the way in which right down to this value offers Griffin a ton of worth this week.

The North Carolina hasn’t constructed up an in depth course historical past at Sea Island simply but, however he did end twenty ninth on the occasion final season. The 27-year-old fired a gap spherical 65 to start out his week after which shot two extra rounds within the 60’s after a second spherical 71. His expertise final season must be useful in his pursuit of a victory this time round.

Sea Island ought to go well with Griffin completely. In his previous 24 rounds, he ranks fifteenth within the discipline in each Strokes Gained: Strategy and in Strokes Gained: Placing on Bermudagrass. His sharp iron play and talent to gap putts on Bermuda make him an excellent candidate for to contend at Sea Island.

Alex Smalley +8000 (DraftKings):

The previous 5 occasions within the PGA Tour’s swing season have given us winners who’ve already received on Tour a number of occasions. The fa oll is usually a time for first-time Tour winners to shine, and among the many prime candidates to perform that this week is Alex Smalley.

Smalley has contended a couple of occasions so far in his profession and a kind of occasions was ultimately 12 months’s RSM Traditional. A constant effort of 67-66-67-67 resulted within the Greensboro, North Carolina resident ending in a tie for fifth place for the week. It’s no shock that Smalley likes Sea Island given the quantity of golf he’s performed within the space and his knack for enjoying properly on shorter programs.

The Duke graduate is starting to spherical into kind, ending thirtieth final week on the Butterfield Bermuda Championship fueled by a closing spherical 65 (-6). Smalley has completed his greatest work on simpler programs and the course ought to present loads of birdie alternatives for the 25-year-old.

Kevin Kisner +25000 (DraftKings):

Kevin Kisner has been enjoying extremely poorly by his requirements since his win on the Wyndham Championship in August of 2021, nonetheless Camilo Villegas’ win final week confirmed us how rapidly issues can change.

Kisner has proven some minimal indicators of enchancment through the fall season, ending 62nd and 51st in his two begins on the Fortinet Championship and the Sanderson Farms Championship. Extra importantly, Kisner gained 1.8 strokes on strategy on the Nation Membership of Jackson, which was his greatest strategy efficiency since November of 2022. Going again to the Villegas instance, whereas he was within the midst of a twelve-start stretch the place he didn’t end higher than 54th, the Colombian gained 4.0 strokes on strategy in a missed reduce on the Sanderson Farms Championship in a missed reduce. Clearly, he discovered one thing and went on to complete 2nd and 1st in his subsequent two begins.

If there’s a course that Kisner could possibly discover “it” on, it’s Sea Island. Kisner is a former Georgia Bulldog who’s received right here in 2015, misplaced in a playoff in 2020 and has two extra top-7 finishes since his win. At lengthy odds, “Kiz” is price a sprinkle on one in all his favourite tracks.