Vincenzi’s ZOZO Championship betting preview: Former Masters champ set for giant week in Tokyo

The PGA TOUR will head to Japan this week for simply the fourth time in historical past to play the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP at Narashino Nation Membership. The occasion was performed on the course in 2019 however needed to transfer to Las Vegas in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic earlier than returning to Narashino in 2021 and 2022. 

Narashino Nation Membership is a par 70 measuring 7,079 yards and options Bentgrass greens. The course has a novel design with 5 par 3s and three par 5s.

The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP is a no-cut occasion that options 78 golfers that features 60 obtainable PGA TOUR gamers from the 2022-2023 FedEx Cup Factors checklist, 9 particular exemptions and 9 Japan Golf Tour gamers. 16 of the highest 50 gamers within the Official World Golf Rating will likely be in attendance together with Xander Schauffele, Cameron Younger, Min Woo Lee, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler. 

Previous Winners at Narashino Nation Membership

• 2022: Keegan Bradley (-15)
• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15)
• 2019: Tiger Woods (-19)

Let’s check out a number of key metrics for Narashino Nation Membership to find out which golfers boast high marks in every class over their final 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Strategy

Accordia Golf Narashino Nation Membership isn’t a really lengthy course. It’s a positional observe and discovering the suitable spots to land the golf ball will create birdie alternatives. With the three winners on the course being Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley, it’s fairly clear that accuracy with the irons will likely be essential this week.

Complete Strokes Gained: Strategy in previous 24 rounds:

1. Sam Ryder (+24.8)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (+23.2) 
3. Xander Schauffele (+21.4)
4. Collin Morikawa (+19.9)
5. Eric Cole (+18.3)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Accordia Golf Narashino Nation Membership is a tree-lined golf course that’s fairly tight off the tee. In 2019, we noticed Tiger Woods win the occasion by conserving the ball within the fairway and intelligently plotting alongside the golf course.

In 2021 and 2022, hitting fairways was extraordinarily tough over the weekend. The course can’t be overpowered, and good drivers of the golf ball ought to have the benefit.

Nonetheless, lengthy hitters have additionally fared effectively on the course. I imagine a effectively rounded off the tee recreation is required this week.

Complete Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in previous 24 rounds:

1. M.J. Daffue (+22.1)
2. Garrick Higgo (+18.0)
3. Kevin Yu (+17.9)
4. Tyler Duncan (+17.8)
5. Min Woo Lee (+17.1)

SG: Placing (Bentgrass)

An fascinating side of the course is its double greens. The course has two greens on every gap to allow golfers to make use of the course year-round as completely different seasons require completely different grass varieties.

The inexperienced complexes themselves are fairly tough, and good Bentgrass putters ought to have a bonus. 

SG: Placing (Bentgrass) previous 24 rounds:

1. Maverick McNealy (+21.4)
2. Eric Cole (+18.9)
3. Dylan Wu (+18.1)
4. Justin Decrease (+17.7)
5. Keegan Bradley (+16.7)

Strokes Gained: Par 3

With 5 par 3s on the course, it’s much more essential than standard for golfers to play them effectively.

Complete SG: Par 3 in previous 24 rounds:

1. Eric Cole (+22.0)
2. Mark Hubbard (+14.5)
3. Andrew Putnam (+11.2)
4. Keegan Bradley (+11.2)
5. Carson Younger (+9.7)

Greens in Regulation: Gained

Narashino Nation Membership can play very tough. Hitting greens in regulation will likely be extremely useful, and in 2021 Matsuyama did so persistently. He gained 15 strokes on the sector within the class, which was six strokes higher than the following finest. Final 12 months, Bradley gained 6.3 strokes. 

Greens In Regulation: Gained in previous 24 rounds:

1. Collin Morikawa (+30.9)
2. Andrew Putnam (+26.0)
3. Sam Ryder (+24.3)
4. Martin Laird (+23.8)
5. Luke Listing (+23.7)

Statistical Mannequin

Beneath, I’ve reported total mannequin rankings utilizing a mixture of the 5 key statistical classes beforehand mentioned.

These rankings are comprised of SG:APP (28%) Good Drives Gained: (23%), Greens in Regulation: Gained (20%), SG: Par 3 (14.5%), SG: Placing (Bentgrass) (14.5%).

1. Collin Morikawa (+1100)
2. Xander Schauffele (+700)
3. Callum Tarren (+7500)
4. Adam Schenk (+4500)
5. Adam Svensson (+4500)
6. J.J. Spaun (+5000)
7. Keegan Bradley (+2500)
8. Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
9. Vincent Norrman (+4500)
10. Eric Cole (+3000)

ZOZO Championship Greatest Bets

Sungjae Im +2000 (FanDuel)

Sungjae Im has been in Asia over the previous few weeks sharpening his recreation. The 25-year-old averted navy service by successful a silver medal on the Asian Video games a couple of weeks in the past and adopted it up with a tie for 2nd place end on the Genesis Championship in South Korea final week. The truth that Im is acclimated to Asia over the previous few weeks ought to give him a leg up on the gamers who will likely be coming over from America.

Sungjae has performed some nice golf on Zoysia fairways all through his profession. He has a runner-up end at East Lake Golf Membership which options the floor in addition to twelfth and sixth place finishes at TPC Southwind (St. Jude). The South Korean has additionally confirmed a fondess of Narashino CC and boasts a third place end right here in 2019 to associate with a twenty ninth final 12 months.

He doesn’t fairly have the pedigree of Schauffele and Morikawa who sit atop the percentages board this week, however I imagine his probabilities to win the occasion are comparable at double the worth. He’s clearly in good type in the mean time and this will likely be a superb likelihood for Im to nab his first PGA Tour victory since 2021.

Adam Scott +2500 (BetRivers)

Adam Scott additionally suits the mould of a participant who’s been taking part in in Asia not too long ago and is acclimated to the situations. Scott performed in final week’s Japan Open, capturing 73-73 and lacking the minimize on the quantity on an extremely tough golf course. He took the bullet prepare to Tokyo final night time and needs to be able to go for the ZOZO Championship.

All through his profession, the Australian has been a world golfer, successful everywhere in the world. He’s gained in Qatar, Beijing, China and in Singapore (by seven strokes) so he should not have any downside taking part in effectively in Tokyo this week. Scott is an skilled golfer who is aware of handle a reasonably tough golf course just like the three earlier winners on the course.

Scott didn’t have his finest season in 2023, lacking the FedEx Cup playoffs, however completed the season sturdy with a seventh place outcome on the Wyndham Championship. He’ll have an opportunity to begin his new season with a bang at Narashino CC.

Cameron Champ +8000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is the kind of participant that exhibits type earlier than successful. Earlier than his most up-to-date victory on the 2021 3M Open, he completed eleventh the week prior on the John Deere Traditional. Earlier than his win on the Fortinet Championship in 2019, he completed twenty eighth the week prior on the Sanderson Farms Championship, gaining 6.8 strokes off the tee. Equally, he gained 6.4 strokes off the tee on the Fortinet in 2018 earlier than successful the Sanderson Farms Championship the next week. 

In his final two begins, Champ has completed ninth and 18th, which I imagine is foreshadowing one other victory within the close to future.

TPC Summerlin is a course that usually favors accuracy over distance, however the 28-year-old managed to hold round anyway after a torrid begin. Though Narashino CC is tight off the tee, bombers have fared very effectively on the course and driving distance has confirmed to be essential statistically.

Champ had some success on the course final 12 months when he completed eighth, solely 4 photographs behind the winner Keegan Bradley. He obtained into competition by capturing 4 rounds within the 60’s (together with a Saturday 64) regardless of being in horrific type on the time. Cam missed the minimize in three begins earlier than the ZOZO in addition to the three begins after.

There are some elite gamers on the high of the betting board this week, however at lengthy odds, Champ has confirmed to be a prolific winner and somebody I belief to complete sturdy if he finds himself within the combine on Sunday.

Keita Nakajima +12o00 (FanDuel)

Keita Nakajima turned skilled final October, however previous to that, his 87 whole weeks because the No. 1-ranked males’s novice golfer on the planet set a document, topping Jon Rahm’s former 60-week cumulative reign. After Nakajima turned professional, he was changed by Ludvig Aberg atop the WAGR, and we’ve seen how rapidly he’s developed into one of many world’s finest younger gamers.

Nakajima has a unbelievable golf pedigree, however he’s additionally been taking part in nice golf in Asia over the previous few months. He has three top-8 finishes in his final 4 begins, in addition to a win on the Yokohama Minato Championship again in August.

The 23-year-old from Japan has additionally had success at Narashino CC. He completed in a tie for twelfth final 12 months due to a ridiculous second spherical 63 and completed in a tie for twenty eighth in 2021 when he teed it up as an novice in a really sturdy area.

At lengthy odds, it’s value taking a shot on a participant who may change into the perfect Japanese golfer since Hideki Matsuyama on a course he will likely be snug on.